PGA Quicken Loans Strategy and Picks

Before I get started with my thoughts on this weeks PGA Tour stop, let me disclose a little something about me and DFS golf - I'm not very good at it.  It's my worst DFS sport as far as ROI is concerned by far.  I'm not exactly sure why?  I feel like I should be pretty good at it.  I always feel confident with my lineups when the guys tee off on Thursday.  But you know what?  Golf is pretty damn hard to predict.  Sure it's easy to roster a guy like Jordan Speith and expect him to make the cut or even contend.  Those guys are easy.  It's the middle of the pack guys that bite me in the butt all the damn time.  Hitting on those guys is critical, because in DFS golf, you have to get guys through to the weekend.  Missed cuts means donated money to your competition.

I study and read everything I can.  I plug stats into my spreadsheet.  I make all of the right decisions before Thursday.  Then play starts.  Sometimes it's the weather that dooms me in, like at the Open Championship or earlier in the year at the Texas Open.  Sometimes it's a guy who withdraws before the tournament starts while I'm slumbering away in the early morning hours.  Sometimes it's a guy who withdraws due to injury or poor play or whatever reason.  And sometimes it's just plain old bad play.  Regardless, I've put together plenty of lineups that I thought were locks on Wednesday that didn't stand a chance to cash by Thursday night.

Now I obviously can't afford to keep losing money forever.  I've really been killed by the three majors, actually not cashing a single lineup at the Open Championship, which was kinda hard to do considering I had 12 lineups in play.  I've been encouraged by my picks at some of the "lesser" tournaments, and this week at the Quicken Loans National qualifies as one of those weeks.  I'm taking a different approach this week and trying to go a little more contrarian with my picks to differentiate me from the masses with a few of my picks.  Let's see how it all shakes out.  Onto the picks!

The Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia

I'm running just four lineups this week on Draftkings.  Putting all four in the $100k Drive the Green.  One of the lineups will be reserved for cash games.  16 golfers in play, eight of which make more than one lineup.  Here are the guys in 50% of the lineups:

THE CORE
Justin Rose ($12,200) - He's the class of the field and has won this event at Congressional and Aronimink.  He has four top 6's in his last seven tournaments, including the Open Championship and the Masters.  It's hard not to like Rose this week, regarless of his price.

Jimmy Walker ($11,000) - He may not be in the best form, but in this weak field he doesn't have to be.  Walker can pop off at any time.  He's 15th in all-around ranking and 9th in scoring average.  I'm riding class over form with this pick.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he won this week.

Pat Perez ($8,400) - Perez is a no-brainer cash game play for me.  He's 16 of 17 making cuts in 2015, and has finished in the top 26 in eight of his last ten events.  That's good form right there.  Will continue to roll with Perez until his price gets out-of-hand.

Andy Sullivan ($8,100) - Here is a guy who I hope people overlook this week.  Sullivan has been killing it across the pond with top 30's in five of his last seven.  He missed the cut over here at the US Open (forgivable).  His only other start he finished 12th at the Memorial.  He's ranked 55th worldwide and I'm expecting a high finish this week.

John Senden ($8,000) - Senden has really turned his season around since the Match Play Championship back in May.  He's rattled off a streak of eight of nine cuts worldwide with three top 10's.  I like his form and his stats match up here. Love him as a GPP play.

David Lingmerth ($7,800) - This is my contrarian pick of the week.  Not sure why this guy seems to get no love.  Haven't read nary a word about him this week, which is fine by me.  In his last four tournaments, he's only had two rounds over par, and one of those was Monday at St. Andrews.  He won in a playoff earlier in the year against Justin Rose at the Memorial.  And he should be well rested having taken last week off.  He's my under $8k pick-to-click this week!

Vaughn Taylor ($6,400) - Taylor has made eight of nine cuts this year, with two top 20's in his last four.  Excellent value at his price.

Hudson Swafford ($5,900) - I'm back on the Hudson Swafford roller-coaster one more week.  This guys has all the stats to compete week-in-week-out.  He's been making cuts, eight of his last ten to be exact.  He was in contention last week before he blew up on Sunday and posted a 79 (thanks again man!).  One of these weeks he's going to keep it all together for all four rounds and post a top-10.  I'm hoping this is the week.

THE OTHERS
Will Wilcox ($8,900) - His stats are always impressive, and he's #1 on Tour in the All-Around category.  Hoping people will be off of him after he withdrew last week with a wrist injury.  He commented on Twitter that he just wanted to give it an extra week of rest, so I'm not overly worried.  He has has solo 2nd and T8 in his last two.  My only concern is his price.  Wish it was $1,000 less.  But then everyone would be on him.

Johnson Wagner ($8,700) - Another guy who is a little pricey for me, but also a guy in good form.  Wagner has two top 10's and three top 18's in his last four.  He's a streaky player and I'm hoping to ride his hot streak for one more week.

Russell Knox ($8,500) - Knox has missed two straight cuts on Tour, but he was T10 at the Scottish Open, and T8 in Memphis before that.  His stats are looking good - 23rd in SGTG, 27th in Ball Striking, 61st in Total Driving, 4th in Proximity.  I like his chances this week.

Harris English ($8,300) - English is making cuts per usual.  He's just not popping off with any high finishes.  That could change at any time with this guy.  His stats are decent and his price is right.

Jason Bohn ($8,100) - This guy just continues to rack up the finishes, making six of seven cuts, including two top 10's and four top 13's.  His statistics look good as well - 39th in SGTG, 42nd in Ball Striking, 83rd in Total Driving, 2nd in Proximity.  He's in my cash game lineup.

Stewart Cink ($7,800) - Cink has made five of seven cuts, and the two he missed in that stretch, he was on the line.  He put up a T5 last week in Canada, and that included a 73 on Friday.  At this point we're trying to focus on guys who will make it to the weekend and Cink is a good bet to do that.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,700) - The kids last two are T22  at the RBC and T12 at the Open Championship.  He also made the cut at the US Open, finishing T42.  He's not going to be under $8k for much longer so got to get him while we can.

Scott Brown ($6,400) - He missed the cut at the John Deere, but was 10 of 11 before that.  Hoping he's still in form.  Just need him to make the cut at his price.