Thursday, July 23, 2015

MLB Lineup Deconstruction - THU 7/23/15

Seven game slate tonight on Draftkings.  The lineup below is not the type of lineup I would typically construct for my cash game ventures.  Although I know the advantages of stacking when it comes to MLB lineup construction, I typically will go no more than two or three players from one team for my cash lineups.  When putting this particular lineup together, I kept falling upon Dodger bats and went that direction.  Probably not the smartest move as the game had a low total, and Bartolo Colon is not a pitcher I would normally target with SIX opposing batters.

When I first looked at the salaries, I was initially going to fade Clayton Kershaw because his salary was so high at $14,500.  I locked in on Tyson Ross right away at home against a lackluster Marlins squad.  Ross is always on my radar when he pitches in Petco.  For my second pitcher I initially decided to save the $5,800 and go with Trevor Bauer and his $8,700 salary.  This would allow me to load up on some bats for the lineup, and I liked Bauer's matchup against the White Sox at home.

The one hitter I knew I wanted was Jose Altuve.  Anytime he's going up against a LHP he's on my radar.  Altuve has a .408 wOBA against lefties since the beginning of 2014.  And when he's facing one like Wade Miley, who has given up a .332 wOBA against RHB this season, he's almost a must-play, depending on salary.  At only $4,400, he's a lock for the lineup tonight.  I originally had Altuve paired with SS Carlos Correa, although I wasn't thrilled with Correa's $4,700 pricetag.  The other batter I really wanted to get into the lineup was Adrian Gonzalez.  He's been killing it since the All-Star break, and he's had good success against Bartolo Colon in the past, going 9-21 with a pair of doubles and a pair of homers.

Once I had Gonzalez and Altuve locked in, it was time to build around them.  Problem was, there was nobody else standing out in the short slate of games.  So I pivoted off Bauer and did the smart thing and paid up for Kershaw.  Of course, rostering Kershaw means finding value in your lineup.  And the guys that stood out to me were all Dodgers.  Hence, the rare cash game six player team stack was born.

Andre Ethier was the first Dodger to catch my eye at his paltry $2,800 salary.  He was batting cleanup and been playing well lately.  Also loved Justin Turner at $3,400.  Rostering him gave me the 2-3-4 in the LA lineup.  Looking at the salaries, I liked the value Yasiel Puig brought to the table at only $3,200.  Puig was batting sixth, so I decided to roster the fifth place batter, Yasmani Grandal.  As much as I usually hate rolling out big stacks like this in cash games, this stack just seemed to be falling into place.  I knew I was limited budget wise for my final two roster spots, but then noticed Kike Hernandez, batting seventh in the Dodger lineup, was priced at the bare minimum of $2,000, leaving me with $3,400.  That gave me 2-7 in the LA lineup.  Last spot went to Jung Ho Kang to play 3B in a good matchup against Doug Fister.



As you can see by the final score, not a bad result.  But almost 40% of the overall total was contributed by Kershaw and his 49.45 points alone.  Dude was a beast and carried a perfect game into the 7th inning.  Good thing I got "smart" and put him back in the lineup.  Trevor Bauer had a rough go against the ChiSox, allowing six earned in six innings (although he did fan nine batters).

Jose Altuve hit a late HR to cap a huge 32 point night for him.  The Dodger stack was a complete dud, except for maybe Gonzalez and his three singles.  Ethier and Hernandez both threw up goose eggs.  Puig's only contribution was a sacrifice fly.  The six Dodgers combined fell 13 points short of Aluve's point total for the night.  Kang also contributed a good game with a pair of doubles.  All in all, a good result, but pretty much saved by the decision to roster Kershaw after initially planning on fading him, and locking in on Altuve in a prime matchup.  Those two alone accounted for 61% of the total team total.

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