Wednesday, January 20, 2016

PGA Careerbuilder Challenge 2016 Picks and Strategy



The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the Careerbuilder Challenge, which in recent years was played as the Humana Challenge.  It's an interesting format as the tournament is played as a Pro-Am over three courses, so all 158 golfers are guaranteed at least three rounds of play.  After Saturday's play, the field will be cut to the top-70 and ties per normal.

As for the courses, two of them are new to the tournament this year.  The most significant change will be to the home course, which will be used to determine the winner on Sunday.  It moves to the PGA West TPC Stadium Course, which hasn't been used for play on the tour in 29 years.  The reason - the PGA Tour pros back in the 80's complained that the track was too difficult.  Awesome.  It will most certainly be the most difficult for the pros to maneuver around this week.  The course was once rated the fourth hardest course in America by Golf Digest and it has the highest slope and stroke rating of any of the three.

The other new course this year will be the TPC Nicklaus Tournament course.  The one holdover from years past is the La Quinta course.  It should prove to be the easiest of the three, with a scoring index of 69.487 from last year.  All three courses are par-72, with four par-5's and four par-3's.

So here's my strategy this week, which is a little different than last week at the Sony.  I am going to roll with two cash lineups this week.  I've targeted three core guys I like and they will be in both.  Six other guys will fill in the remaining three spots in the two lineups.  This was a tough week to really zone in on just one lineup as I couldn't fit some of the higher priced guys in the same lineup together; hence, I'm rolling out the two lineups this week.  I am then carrying over one core guy, plus one of my other cash guys into a GPP lineup which features four other guys who I think are excellent tournament plays but who I wasn't confident enough to play in cash.  Here we go!

THE CORE
Francesco Molinari ($8,700) - This guy has the type of golf game that translates just about anywhere.  With this tournament being played over three tracks, I think it sets up nicely for him to play well and be in contention come Sunday.  He finished T33 at the Sony last week, and it could have been better if he hadn't struggled on Sunday with a 70.  He was 10th in this tournament last year over different courses.  He's one of the best putters on the planet, and if he can get from T2G better this week than last, look out!

Russell Henley ($8,300) - Henley disappointed many a DFS player last week by missing the cut at the Sony.  But I'm on board this week and I hope other aren't.  Guy checks off all the boxes as far as Accuracy, GIR and SG:Putting.  He was playing well before the December break with a T6 and 10th in his last two starts.

Pat Perez ($6,600) - I'm going back to the Pat Perez well once again after a less than stellar performance last week at the Sony.  Thing with Perez is he always plays well on the West Coast.  He's a former winner of this tournament.  His current form leaves a whole lot to be desired, but I'm thinking this tournament format is just the thing to get him going.

THE SPECIALISTS
Robert Streb ($9,400) - Streb is a cut maker who really fits this week with what we're looking for: SG:Total, Bermuda, Weak Fields, Par-72 Courses, Easy Courses.  He's better than average in all those categories.  I also like the fact he's the 12th most expensive golfer this week on DK, but is ranked 6th as far as odds go on the Vegas line.  Sign me up.

Charley Hoffman ($9,200) - This guy is a former winner of this event, back in 2007, and he's also go five top-10's in nine appearances, including a runner-up finish last year.  A California boy who loves playing on the Left Coast.  He's a guy who excels on the easier courses.  Let's hope the Stadium Course won't slow him down this week.

Jerry Kelly ($7,500) - Kelly is another guy who always seems to play well early in the season.  He's made four straight cuts to start the season and has shot par or better in 11 straight rounds.  Not the flashiest pick of the bunch, but a guy I'm counting on to make it to Sunday.

THE GUYS IN FORM
Webb Simpson ($9,600) - He's made five of his last six cuts here and finished in the top-13 three times, including a 7th here last year.  Of course, the change in courses makes this year a little bit hard to rely on past performance.  But Simpson has started off 2016 in good form, finishing T13 at the Sony with a high round of 69, and that came on Sunday.  He really does everything well that we're looking for this week.  If he can get his putter going, which is always a struggle, he can win this thing!

Charles Howell III ($9,100) - Charlie Three Sticks is yet another guy who excels early in the year.  He has rolled off six straight cuts made to open the season, and he has a good track record in this tournament with 8 of 10 cuts made and a pair of top-10's.  Wish he was better on Bermuda, but we can't have it all.

Daniel Summerhays ($7,900) - Summerhays is 5-for-5 to start the season with three top-20's.  He finished T13 last week at the Sony.  He's a guy who puts the ball in play and is a solid putter and has made three of four cuts here with a best of 11th.  He also cracked the top-100 in the world, starting the tournament this week as the 99th ranked golfer globally.

THE GPP FLIERS
Ryan Palmer ($11,000) - Hard to really categorize this guy as a flier as he's played superbly in this tournament in the past, firing a combined 68-under par the last three years.  Now that's some production.  He's made six of his last seven cuts at this event with four top-10's in his last five trips, including a 10th here last year.  Palmer is also noticeably better on Bermuda greens, which we have this week.  Since 2013, he's ranked 4th on Tour in SG:Total on these greens and is 11th in Bermuda Performance vs Expected Strokes Gained.  With Bill Haas slightly more expensive and Phil Mickelson slightly cheaper in his price range, I'm hoping Palmer will be lightly owned.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,500) - We're getting the 41st ranked golfer in the world here at a discounted price.  As far as world rank goes, he would be 7th in this tournament field and he comes in as the 32nd ranked in DK salary.  He could completely tank for all I know, but I'm thinking he shows his class and is around come Sunday.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,000) - Here's another guy I think we are getting at a discounted price.  He's made all three of his cuts this season, and he proved last year that he can play with the best, making the cut at both the US and British Opens.  He checks in as the 46th most expensive golfer this week.  I say he's far better than that.  We shall see.

Erik Compton ($6,200) - Lastly we have Erik Compton.  Although he missed the cut last week at the Sony, he played decent, firing 69-69 to miss the cut by a stroke.  He's three of four making the cut at this event with a T10 last year.  Compton is first relative to the field in Strokes Gained on Par 72 courses and seventh in the field in Strokes Gained on Bermuda Grass.  At only $6.2k he just needs to make it to Sunday to pay off his salary.



Here's hoping to a good journey towards all 13 guys making it to Sunday!

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Sony Open Results

We rolled eight golfers out at the Sony in two lineups.  Seven of the eight made it to play the weekend.  Only golfer not to make it to Saturday was Chris Kirk, who actually fired a 5-under 65 on Friday, but was doomed with his opening round 74.  It was only his second round in 22 trips around Waialae over par.  His missing the cut doomed the Scott/Kirk lineup which failed to cash in a single contest.

Two more golfers, David Hearn and Pat Perez, were then cut after poor Saturday rounds.  Highest finisher of the eight was Jerry Kelly who was T9.  Here is a snapshot of the lineup that made money.


Matt Kuchar flirted with the cut over his first two rounds, and was piddling along on Saturday before firing off six straight birdies to close his round and get into contention for Sunday.  Unfortunately, none of the golfers in my lineups got any momentum during the final round.

Adam Scott was somewhat of a disappointment.  He did play all four rounds, which is nice, but he never really got into any kind of groove.  He was under-70 all four with a 68-68-68-69, but when the winner shoots 69-64-65-62, you're leaving some strokes out on the course.  Not what you're looking for from your top priced guy.

All-in-all though, not a terrible week.  When you can get seven of eight to the weekend, it's not too bad.  If Hearn or Perez could have avoided the Saturday cut, it's likely the lineups would have cashed in every contest.  As it is, still a profitable week, albeit a nominal one.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

2016 Sony Open Strategy and Picks

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week for the annual Sony Hawaii Open at the beautiful Waialae Country Club.  And while 2016 officially kicked off last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, this week is the first full-field tournament of the new year.  The venue this week is one of the oldest tracks on the PGA Tour, and it is also one of the shortest.  Waialae plays as a Par-70, so par Par 4 scoring is going to be imperative.

The thing about PGA DFS is trying to figure out how much to weigh past success at a particular course compared to a players current form.  When these two align, it's a recipe for success.  My goal this year is to target these golfers and get guys through to the weekend.  Making cuts is imperative to making money in this sport.  Let's see if we can identify some guys who will me making us money this week!



I am going to try and limit my exposure to multiple golfers this year.  I stick to a strategy in other sports where I pick out an optimal lineup and run with it.  Last year during the PGA season, I would target 12-16 different golfers and run multiple lineups containing all of them.  Not this year.  Going to stick to 6-8 guys I really like and roll them in all my contests.  It may mean I crap out before the weekend some weeks, but if I can get the core guys I like through to the weekend on most weeks, it should be a profitable season.

THE STUDS
Adam Scott ($12,000) - The majority of DFS players are going to flock to two-time defending champion Jimmy Walker in this price range at only $200 more.  Not me.  I'm rolling with the big Australian as the core to my lineups.  Scott is in great form with five top-10s in his last six starts, including a T10 last week at the TOC.  He finished T8 in his last visit to Waialae in 2014.  I think Scott will be low owned this week as the second most expensive guy and he's a great pick as a cash game anchor and GPP play.

Matt Kucher ($11,500) - It's gonna be hard to fit both Scott and Kucher in the same lineup, so I'll probably have to split my exposure to both.  Kucher is a rock solid choice this week.  Whereas Scott may have some questions surrounding his putting stroke, Kucher is about as safe as they come.  His last four at Waialae have resulted in no worse than a T8.  If that doesn't entice you, then maybe the fact that he's the best in the field at Par 4 scoring average.  Wanna guess who is second?  Adam Scott.

THE COURSE HORSES
Charles Howell III ($9,700) - Howell has never missed the cut at the Sony, with a remarkable eight Top-10 finishes since 2002.  His last five here have included a T2, T3 and T8.  He's a guy who seems to always play well at the beginning of the season, which has been the case this year with three starts and a low finish of T17 at the OHL.

Chris Kirk ($9,400) - Kirk is another guy who has never missed the cut at the Sony.  As a matter of fact, this guy has only had one round over par in 20 rounds at Waialae, and that was last year when he fired a 74 on Saturday.  In 2014 he finished alone in second.  2013 he was T5.  His stats align at this course as well as he's good on short courses and Par-70 tracks, as well as SG:T2G.  As with the studs above, it's gonna be hard to pair both of these guys with one of the above, so I'll likely have to split my exposure.

Webb Simpson ($7,700) - Keeping with the theme this week, Simpson is another guy who has never failed to play the weekend at Waialae, going six-for-six with a pair of Top-20s.  Simpson was leading the tournament last year after two rounds, firing an opening round 62, but he faltered on the weekend and came home T13.  He historically plays well on shorter courses, so this week shapes up as a good one for the former U.S. Open champion.

Jerry Kelly ($7,400) - Unlike the golfers mentioned above, Kelly has in fact missed a cut at Waialae.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't like playing this course. As a matter of fact, this may be his best course historically, with 11 top-25 finishes in 18 starts, including eight top-10s and a win back in 2002.  His last two trips have resulted in a T8 last year and solo 3rd in 2014.  The old guy knows how to maneuver around this track.

David Hearn ($7,000) - Here's another guy who has never missed a cut at Waialae.  His last five here have not resulted in a low finish, with his best being a T10 in 2012, but the name of the game is making the weekend and this guy has a knack for that.  Hearn is four-of-five on the season, making his last four so his form seems solid heading into play here.  The only concern is he won't be able to use his anchored broomstick putter this week but I'm going to ignore that.  Hopefully he can figure out the short stick.

THE SPECIALIST
Pat Perez ($6,500) - Perez gets his own category this week, and for good reason.  When looking at the stats, and the one's we are zeroing in on for this course, Perez hits them all.  He's an excellent player on short courses and Par-70 courses.  He's good in strokes gained total.  And when it comes to putting, he's the best in the field on Bermuda greens.  Perez also has a nice history at Waialea, making the weekend in 12 of 14 tries.  His last three trips here have resulted in two Top-10s.  He's been working with his swing coach the past month with an eye toward this tournament, and he recently posted on Instagram that he's looking forward to a great week.  I love his price and he'll be in every lineup for me.


Those are my guys this week.  Here's how the lineups look:


As you can see, this is 30 hours before lineups lock so things are subject to change.  But I'm feeling good about these guys.  Will be entering more contests, probably steering the Kuchar/Howell III lineup towards the cash games.  I'm really liking the Scott/Kirk lineup though as a contrarian option.  I'm really thinking Scott's ownership will be extremely low and I think he has as good a shot as anyone in the field to take home the victory this week.

Friday, July 31, 2015

PGA Quicken Loans Weekend Outlook

So we started the week with 16 golfers in four different lineups.  As we hit the weekend, 11 golfers have survived to play on Saturday.  Not great.  And no single lineup got all six golfers through the cut.  Two lineups, including my cash lineup, got five through.  The other two lineups are essentially toast, getting four and three through respectively.  Here's the two lineups that have a shot at cashing.


From our core eight players who were in two of the four lineups, six made it to the weekend while two missed the cut.  Those two were John Senden and Andy Sullivan.  Senden shot a 74 on Thursday which included an eight on the par-4 12th hole.  He came back on Friday and fired a uninspiring 71 to miss the cut by five strokes.  Easily the most disappointing golfer for me this week.  Sullivan shot an opening round 65 and was seemingly safe for the weekend, but he followed up his good start with a second round 76 to miss the cut by one stroke.

Jimmy Walker played just the opposite of Sullivan, flirting with the cut-line by firing a even par 71 on Thursday, but coming back guns blazing on Friday to fire an 8-under 63.  He heads to the weekend tied for 5th, three shots off the lead.  Two other core players, Pat Perez and David Lingmerth, are also looking strong.  Perez is T5 and Lingmerth is alone in 4th place at 9-under.

Vegas favorite Justin Rose followed up his opening round 66 with and even par 71 in round two.  He sits within striking distance, six strokes off the lead.  The other two core players, Hudson Swafford and Vaughn Taylor, just squeaked into the weekend by landing on the cut-line at -2.

As for the singles, three missed the cut.  Scott Brown never got going in his first round and finished with a 74.  He didn't make up enough in his second round and missed the cut by a three strokes.  Stewart Cink fell victim to the same hole Senden endured, the 12th, posting a triple-bogey in his first round.  He never recovered and missed the cut by two.  Johnson Wagner fired back-to-back 71's and also missed by a couple.  Cink happened to be in my cash lineup which hurts.

The remaining five are all chugging along within striking distance.  Jason Bohn just continues being Jason Bohn, firing consecutive 67's.  He's T5, three shots back.  Youngster Ollie Schniederjans sits alone in 14th at -7.  Russell Knox is right there at -6.  Harris English is at -5 and Will Wilcox is at -3.

Saturday is moving day.  Hoping to keep Lingmerth, Perez and Walker at the top while guys like Rose, Bohn and Knox make a move.  Need the guys firing on all cylinders since the lineups are short one golfer heading home.

MLB Friday 7/31/15

Running two lineups tonight, one for cash and one in the $50k Hot Corner tournament on DraftKings.  Here's a quick breakdown on who I like tonight.

Clayton Kershaw was originally scheduled to pitch tonight but he was scratched late so we don't have to try and fit his salary into the lineup.  Rolling with Madison Bumgarner at $10,300 in both my cash and GPP lineups.  I like his price and he gets a Rangers team who is markedly worse against southpaws, with a K% of 23.1%.  He has double-digit strikeout potential in this one I believe.  For my 2nd starter, I'm going with Gio Gonzalez at $8,700 in my cash lineup, and Michael Wacha at $9,000 for the GPP.  Gonzalez has been on a bit of a run of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts.  He faces a Mets team who he limited to two runs on six hits 10 days ago.  Wacha is pitching against a Tulo-less Rockies at home where he usually pitches well.  After a slow start, Wacha has has averaged a K an inning over his last 80 frames.

I'm going with AJ Pierzynski at $3,000 in both lineups.  I like his price and he's hitting cleanup against the Phillies.  David Buchanan is a reverse-splits pitcher, but that doesn't mean he's good against lefties.  I like AJs chances.

As far as the rest of the lineup is concerned, I'm running some stacks out there, both in the cash lineup and the GPP.  In cash, I'm targeting the IF of the Cardinals, rostering Kolten Wong ($4,100), Matt Carpenter ($4,100) and Jhonny Peralta ($3,700).  I like Wong and Carpenter as left-handed bats against Kyle Kendrick, who has been destroyed by lefties to the tune of a .382 wOBA and .886 OPS.  He's not much better against right-handed batters, so going with Peralta too even though he's been scuffling lately.

Filling out my cash lineup with a mini-stack of Adam Eaton ($4,00) and Melky Cabrera ($3,900) from the White Sox.  Been using them lately and they've been killing it.  Eaton has a .490 wOBA over the past two weeks.  Cabrera is at .465 wOBA over the same span.  They are going up against Nathan Eovaldi and the Yankees.  Eovaldi has given up a .363 wOBA to right-handed batters this season.

The final two guys in the cash lineup are also in the GPP lineup.  I've targeted Todd Frazier at $5,000 against lefty Jeff Locke, and Chris Young, who is batting 2nd in the lineup, against lefty Carlos Rodon.  Both of these two crush LHP.  Frazier has a .371 wOBA and .267 ISO agains southpaws, Young a .353 wOBA, including a .530 mark over the past two weeks.

I'm running a couple of three player stacks in the GPP lineup.  Targeting the game at Great America Ballpark in Cincinnati.  For the home team, I'm rolling out Frazier, Joey Votto ($5,000) and Marlon Byrd ($3,400).  I really like Bryd at his price.  For the Pirates, I'm going with Gregory Polanco ($3,500), Neil Walker ($3,700) and Jung Ho Kang ($3,900).  Wind is blowing out at 15mph, and Reds starter Michael Lorenzen has given up over two dongs per nine innings over the past month.



Both of these lineups performed quite well.  The cash game lineup obviously cashed in all contests.  The GPP lineup barely hang on to get in the money despite scoring 138.10 points (I spoke too soon.  Mike Trout hit a 9th inning homer and dropped this lineup out of the money  Argh!!!).  Madison Bumgarner nearly sunk both lineups by giving up six runs in his first couple innings of work.  He eventually settled down and struck out eight in seven innings of work to post a respectable yet disappointing 14.35 points.  All of my stacks performed pretty well.  Todd Frazier was a general disappointment with only two singles and six points.  Hard to complain too much with a pair of lineups topping 135 points.  On a bit of a roll with successful lineups.  Hope to keep it going tomorrow.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

PGA Quicken Loans Strategy and Picks

Before I get started with my thoughts on this weeks PGA Tour stop, let me disclose a little something about me and DFS golf - I'm not very good at it.  It's my worst DFS sport as far as ROI is concerned by far.  I'm not exactly sure why?  I feel like I should be pretty good at it.  I always feel confident with my lineups when the guys tee off on Thursday.  But you know what?  Golf is pretty damn hard to predict.  Sure it's easy to roster a guy like Jordan Speith and expect him to make the cut or even contend.  Those guys are easy.  It's the middle of the pack guys that bite me in the butt all the damn time.  Hitting on those guys is critical, because in DFS golf, you have to get guys through to the weekend.  Missed cuts means donated money to your competition.

I study and read everything I can.  I plug stats into my spreadsheet.  I make all of the right decisions before Thursday.  Then play starts.  Sometimes it's the weather that dooms me in, like at the Open Championship or earlier in the year at the Texas Open.  Sometimes it's a guy who withdraws before the tournament starts while I'm slumbering away in the early morning hours.  Sometimes it's a guy who withdraws due to injury or poor play or whatever reason.  And sometimes it's just plain old bad play.  Regardless, I've put together plenty of lineups that I thought were locks on Wednesday that didn't stand a chance to cash by Thursday night.

Now I obviously can't afford to keep losing money forever.  I've really been killed by the three majors, actually not cashing a single lineup at the Open Championship, which was kinda hard to do considering I had 12 lineups in play.  I've been encouraged by my picks at some of the "lesser" tournaments, and this week at the Quicken Loans National qualifies as one of those weeks.  I'm taking a different approach this week and trying to go a little more contrarian with my picks to differentiate me from the masses with a few of my picks.  Let's see how it all shakes out.  Onto the picks!

The Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia
I'm running just four lineups this week on Draftkings.  Putting all four in the $100k Drive the Green.  One of the lineups will be reserved for cash games.  16 golfers in play, eight of which make more than one lineup.  Here are the guys in 50% of the lineups:

THE CORE
Justin Rose ($12,200) - He's the class of the field and has won this event at Congressional and Aronimink.  He has four top 6's in his last seven tournaments, including the Open Championship and the Masters.  It's hard not to like Rose this week, regarless of his price.

Jimmy Walker ($11,000) - He may not be in the best form, but in this weak field he doesn't have to be.  Walker can pop off at any time.  He's 15th in all-around ranking and 9th in scoring average.  I'm riding class over form with this pick.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he won this week.

Pat Perez ($8,400) - Perez is a no-brainer cash game play for me.  He's 16 of 17 making cuts in 2015, and has finished in the top 26 in eight of his last ten events.  That's good form right there.  Will continue to roll with Perez until his price gets out-of-hand.

Andy Sullivan ($8,100) - Here is a guy who I hope people overlook this week.  Sullivan has been killing it across the pond with top 30's in five of his last seven.  He missed the cut over here at the US Open (forgivable).  His only other start he finished 12th at the Memorial.  He's ranked 55th worldwide and I'm expecting a high finish this week.

John Senden ($8,000) - Senden has really turned his season around since the Match Play Championship back in May.  He's rattled off a streak of eight of nine cuts worldwide with three top 10's.  I like his form and his stats match up here. Love him as a GPP play.

David Lingmerth ($7,800) - This is my contrarian pick of the week.  Not sure why this guy seems to get no love.  Haven't read nary a word about him this week, which is fine by me.  In his last four tournaments, he's only had two rounds over par, and one of those was Monday at St. Andrews.  He won in a playoff earlier in the year against Justin Rose at the Memorial.  And he should be well rested having taken last week off.  He's my under $8k pick-to-click this week!

Vaughn Taylor ($6,400) - Taylor has made eight of nine cuts this year, with two top 20's in his last four.  Excellent value at his price.

Hudson Swafford ($5,900) - I'm back on the Hudson Swafford roller-coaster one more week.  This guys has all the stats to compete week-in-week-out.  He's been making cuts, eight of his last ten to be exact.  He was in contention last week before he blew up on Sunday and posted a 79 (thanks again man!).  One of these weeks he's going to keep it all together for all four rounds and post a top-10.  I'm hoping this is the week.

THE OTHERS
Will Wilcox ($8,900) - His stats are always impressive, and he's #1 on Tour in the All-Around category.  Hoping people will be off of him after he withdrew last week with a wrist injury.  He commented on Twitter that he just wanted to give it an extra week of rest, so I'm not overly worried.  He has has solo 2nd and T8 in his last two.  My only concern is his price.  Wish it was $1,000 less.  But then everyone would be on him.

Johnson Wagner ($8,700) - Another guy who is a little pricey for me, but also a guy in good form.  Wagner has two top 10's and three top 18's in his last four.  He's a streaky player and I'm hoping to ride his hot streak for one more week.

Russell Knox ($8,500) - Knox has missed two straight cuts on Tour, but he was T10 at the Scottish Open, and T8 in Memphis before that.  His stats are looking good - 23rd in SGTG, 27th in Ball Striking, 61st in Total Driving, 4th in Proximity.  I like his chances this week.

Harris English ($8,300) - English is making cuts per usual.  He's just not popping off with any high finishes.  That could change at any time with this guy.  His stats are decent and his price is right.

Jason Bohn ($8,100) - This guy just continues to rack up the finishes, making six of seven cuts, including two top 10's and four top 13's.  His statistics look good as well - 39th in SGTG, 42nd in Ball Striking, 83rd in Total Driving, 2nd in Proximity.  He's in my cash game lineup.

Stewart Cink ($7,800) - Cink has made five of seven cuts, and the two he missed in that stretch, he was on the line.  He put up a T5 last week in Canada, and that included a 73 on Friday.  At this point we're trying to focus on guys who will make it to the weekend and Cink is a good bet to do that.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,700) - The kids last two are T22  at the RBC and T12 at the Open Championship.  He also made the cut at the US Open, finishing T42.  He's not going to be under $8k for much longer so got to get him while we can.

Scott Brown ($6,400) - He missed the cut at the John Deere, but was 10 of 11 before that.  Hoping he's still in form.  Just need him to make the cut at his price.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

MLB Wednesday 7/29/15

Only nine games on the DraftKings slate tonight.  Clayton Kershaw was scheduled to pitch tonight but he was scratched.  All of the other "aces" went in the day games (Archer, Lester, Kluber, King Felix).  Let's take a look at how I plan to attack what's leftover.

STARTING PITCHERS
With Kershaw out of the mix, that leaves only a few options to really choose from.  Tyson Ross is the most expensive guys on the slate at $10,800.  I usually only target him at home in Petco, but he does draw a fantastic matchup against the Mets on the road.  Masahio Tanaka is next expensive at $10,200.  He draws a more difficult matchup against the Rangers in Arlington, but he has pitched extremely well of late, registering over 23 points his last three starts.  The rest of the SPs to consider are a little shaky.  Garrett Richards ($9,300) is on the road in Houston, Lance McCullers ($8,800) opposes him, Jose Quintana ($8,300) is on the road in Boston.  None of those guys stand out to me with the exception of McCullers, who is intriguing with Trout announced out of the lineup.  For my money, I'm rostering John Lackey, who at $8,600 is a great value and a safe play for cash.  He's at home, where he has a 1.97 ERA in 11 starts.  He's also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive starts.  That trend continues tonight in my estimation.

So what pitchers are we gonna try and target tonight.  I got my eyes on Jerome Williams pitching at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, as well as Mike Foltynewicz in Baltimore and Rick Porcello at home against the surging White Sox offense.

CATCHER
I'm going back to the well once again and saving a spot for Matt Wieters.  He's facing Mike Foltynewicz who has given it up this year to lefties to the tune of a .424 wOBA.  Plus he's still bargain priced at only $2,900.  Sold!  Others of interest include Yasmani Grandal, AJ Pierzynski and Stephen Vogt.

FIRST BASE
My original plan was to roster Edwin Encarnacion, but he was scratched with a jammed finger.  So I'm heading back to the Jose Abreu well once again.  This guy almost never lets me down.  Very consistent for cash game play.  He came through with a 28 point effort last night.  He faces off against Rick Porcello, who hasn't been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate.  Will be pairing Abreu with a couple of his teammates to employ a mini-stack.

Chris Davis ($4,200) is another option I like today against the righty Foltynewicz.

SECOND BASE
Nobody stands out at 2B in my eyes.  Going with Kolton Wong.  He has a decent matchup against righty Andrew DeSclafani, who has allowed a .352 wOBA to left-handed batters.  Wong, for his part, has been decent lately, with hits in six straight games.  Plus he bats leadoff.

THIRD BASE
Another position where nobody jumped off the page.  I like A-Rod of course, but his pricetag is a little steep for my cash game liking at $5,000 in a matchup against a RHP.  Kinda like Xander Bogaerts at his bargain price of $3,400 against lefty Quintana in Boston.  Also looking at Matt Carpenter at $3,900 against DeSclafani, but he's not been swinging a hot bat of late.  In the end, gonna bite the bullet and lock in A-Rod, who has been scorching hot of late with a .437 wOBA and six HRs over his last 10 games.

SHORTSTOP
As soon as I saw the pricing, I locked in Troy Tulowitski as my SS.  End of story.  Not only the narrative of his first game in Toronto, but facing a gas can like Jerome Williams who has given up a .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014.  Tulo hasn't been hitting like Tulo of late, but does have a .373 wOBA against RHP since the start of 2014.  And at only $4,100, he's a no-brainer to me.  Lock and load!

OUTFIELD
In the OF my plan is to pair Adam Eaton ($4,000) and Melky Cabrera ($3,800) with Abreu in a stack against Porcello in Boston, then spend whatever is left on the best available OF option.  Both Eaton (.463 wOBA) and Cabrera (.430 wOBA) have been on fire the past couple weeks.  Cabrera especially, with six multi-hit games in a row and eight of his last ten.  Pairing these two with Abreu just makes sense.  For my final spot, I got lucky with Will Venable ($2,700) being available for the exact amount I had left.  He's not an auto-play by any means, but he will be hitting leadoff tonight and faces a righty in Bartolo Colon.

Other guys I considered in the OF were Brett Gardner, Jason Heyward and Josh Reddick.  I actually really liked Reddick, and if Encarnacion would have played he would have been in the lineup instead of Venable.


Another good night as the lineup nearly cracks 140 points, despite Tanaka pitching like crap in Texas.  My main targets of Tulo and the White Sox trio all pretty much came through.  Tulo launched a bomb in his first game as a Blue Jay.  Cabrera kept his multi-hit streak alive with three knocks.  And Eaton stayed hot with three hits and a homer.  The pivot to Venable worked out as he scored 17 points.  Wong and A-Rod the only real disappointments, with Wong putting up the goose egg.  Lineup of course cashed in all H2H's, double-ups and 50/50s.  Gonna look to keep the hot streak alive tomorrow.