PGA Careerbuilder Challenge 2016 Picks and Strategy

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the Careerbuilder Challenge, which in recent years was played as the Humana Challenge.  It's an interesting format as the tournament is played as a Pro-Am over three courses, so all 158 golfers are guaranteed at least three rounds of play.  After Saturday's play, the field will be cut to the top-70 and ties per normal.

As for the courses, two of them are new to the tournament this year.  The most significant change will be to the home course, which will be used to determine the winner on Sunday.  It moves to the PGA West TPC Stadium Course, which hasn't been used for play on the tour in 29 years.  The reason - the PGA Tour pros back in the 80's complained that the track was too difficult.  Awesome.  It will most certainly be the most difficult for the pros to maneuver around this week.  The course was once rated the fourth hardest course in America by Golf Digest and it has the highest slope and stroke rating of any of the three.

The other new course this year will be the TPC Nicklaus Tournament course.  The one holdover from years past is the La Quinta course.  It should prove to be the easiest of the three, with a scoring index of 69.487 from last year.  All three courses are par-72, with four par-5's and four par-3's.

So here's my strategy this week, which is a little different than last week at the Sony.  I am going to roll with two cash lineups this week.  I've targeted three core guys I like and they will be in both.  Six other guys will fill in the remaining three spots in the two lineups.  This was a tough week to really zone in on just one lineup as I couldn't fit some of the higher priced guys in the same lineup together; hence, I'm rolling out the two lineups this week.  I am then carrying over one core guy, plus one of my other cash guys into a GPP lineup which features four other guys who I think are excellent tournament plays but who I wasn't confident enough to play in cash.  Here we go!

THE CORE
Francesco Molinari ($8,700) - This guy has the type of golf game that translates just about anywhere.  With this tournament being played over three tracks, I think it sets up nicely for him to play well and be in contention come Sunday.  He finished T33 at the Sony last week, and it could have been better if he hadn't struggled on Sunday with a 70.  He was 10th in this tournament last year over different courses.  He's one of the best putters on the planet, and if he can get from T2G better this week than last, look out!

Russell Henley ($8,300) - Henley disappointed many a DFS player last week by missing the cut at the Sony.  But I'm on board this week and I hope other aren't.  Guy checks off all the boxes as far as Accuracy, GIR and SG:Putting.  He was playing well before the December break with a T6 and 10th in his last two starts.

Pat Perez ($6,600) - I'm going back to the Pat Perez well once again after a less than stellar performance last week at the Sony.  Thing with Perez is he always plays well on the West Coast.  He's a former winner of this tournament.  His current form leaves a whole lot to be desired, but I'm thinking this tournament format is just the thing to get him going.

THE SPECIALISTS
Robert Streb ($9,400) - Streb is a cut maker who really fits this week with what we're looking for: SG:Total, Bermuda, Weak Fields, Par-72 Courses, Easy Courses.  He's better than average in all those categories.  I also like the fact he's the 12th most expensive golfer this week on DK, but is ranked 6th as far as odds go on the Vegas line.  Sign me up.

Charley Hoffman ($9,200) - This guy is a former winner of this event, back in 2007, and he's also go five top-10's in nine appearances, including a runner-up finish last year.  A California boy who loves playing on the Left Coast.  He's a guy who excels on the easier courses.  Let's hope the Stadium Course won't slow him down this week.

Jerry Kelly ($7,500) - Kelly is another guy who always seems to play well early in the season.  He's made four straight cuts to start the season and has shot par or better in 11 straight rounds.  Not the flashiest pick of the bunch, but a guy I'm counting on to make it to Sunday.

THE GUYS IN FORM
Webb Simpson ($9,600) - He's made five of his last six cuts here and finished in the top-13 three times, including a 7th here last year.  Of course, the change in courses makes this year a little bit hard to rely on past performance.  But Simpson has started off 2016 in good form, finishing T13 at the Sony with a high round of 69, and that came on Sunday.  He really does everything well that we're looking for this week.  If he can get his putter going, which is always a struggle, he can win this thing!

Charles Howell III ($9,100) - Charlie Three Sticks is yet another guy who excels early in the year.  He has rolled off six straight cuts made to open the season, and he has a good track record in this tournament with 8 of 10 cuts made and a pair of top-10's.  Wish he was better on Bermuda, but we can't have it all.

Daniel Summerhays ($7,900) - Summerhays is 5-for-5 to start the season with three top-20's.  He finished T13 last week at the Sony.  He's a guy who puts the ball in play and is a solid putter and has made three of four cuts here with a best of 11th.  He also cracked the top-100 in the world, starting the tournament this week as the 99th ranked golfer globally.

THE GPP FLIERS
Ryan Palmer ($11,000) - Hard to really categorize this guy as a flier as he's played superbly in this tournament in the past, firing a combined 68-under par the last three years.  Now that's some production.  He's made six of his last seven cuts at this event with four top-10's in his last five trips, including a 10th here last year.  Palmer is also noticeably better on Bermuda greens, which we have this week.  Since 2013, he's ranked 4th on Tour in SG:Total on these greens and is 11th in Bermuda Performance vs Expected Strokes Gained.  With Bill Haas slightly more expensive and Phil Mickelson slightly cheaper in his price range, I'm hoping Palmer will be lightly owned.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,500) - We're getting the 41st ranked golfer in the world here at a discounted price.  As far as world rank goes, he would be 7th in this tournament field and he comes in as the 32nd ranked in DK salary.  He could completely tank for all I know, but I'm thinking he shows his class and is around come Sunday.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,000) - Here's another guy I think we are getting at a discounted price.  He's made all three of his cuts this season, and he proved last year that he can play with the best, making the cut at both the US and British Opens.  He checks in as the 46th most expensive golfer this week.  I say he's far better than that.  We shall see.

Erik Compton ($6,200) - Lastly we have Erik Compton.  Although he missed the cut last week at the Sony, he played decent, firing 69-69 to miss the cut by a stroke.  He's three of four making the cut at this event with a T10 last year.  Compton is first relative to the field in Strokes Gained on Par 72 courses and seventh in the field in Strokes Gained on Bermuda Grass.  At only $6.2k he just needs to make it to Sunday to pay off his salary.

Here's hoping to a good journey towards all 13 guys making it to Sunday!

Sony Open Results

We rolled eight golfers out at the Sony in two lineups.  Seven of the eight made it to play the weekend.  Only golfer not to make it to Saturday was Chris Kirk, who actually fired a 5-under 65 on Friday, but was doomed with his opening round 74.  It was only his second round in 22 trips around Waialae over par.  His missing the cut doomed the Scott/Kirk lineup which failed to cash in a single contest.

Two more golfers, David Hearn and Pat Perez, were then cut after poor Saturday rounds.  Highest finisher of the eight was Jerry Kelly who was T9.  Here is a snapshot of the lineup that made money.

Matt Kuchar flirted with the cut over his first two rounds, and was piddling along on Saturday before firing off six straight birdies to close his round and get into contention for Sunday.  Unfortunately, none of the golfers in my lineups got any momentum during the final round.

Adam Scott was somewhat of a disappointment.  He did play all four rounds, which is nice, but he never really got into any kind of groove.  He was under-70 all four with a 68-68-68-69, but when the winner shoots 69-64-65-62, you're leaving some strokes out on the course.  Not what you're looking for from your top priced guy.

All-in-all though, not a terrible week.  When you can get seven of eight to the weekend, it's not too bad.  If Hearn or Perez could have avoided the Saturday cut, it's likely the lineups would have cashed in every contest.  As it is, still a profitable week, albeit a nominal one.

2016 Sony Open Strategy and Picks

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week for the annual Sony Hawaii Open at the beautiful Waialae Country Club.  And while 2016 officially kicked off last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, this week is the first full-field tournament of the new year.  The venue this week is one of the oldest tracks on the PGA Tour, and it is also one of the shortest.  Waialae plays as a Par-70, so par Par 4 scoring is going to be imperative.

The thing about PGA DFS is trying to figure out how much to weigh past success at a particular course compared to a players current form.  When these two align, it's a recipe for success.  My goal this year is to target these golfers and get guys through to the weekend.  Making cuts is imperative to making money in this sport.  Let's see if we can identify some guys who will me making us money this week!

I am going to try and limit my exposure to multiple golfers this year.  I stick to a strategy in other sports where I pick out an optimal lineup and run with it.  Last year during the PGA season, I would target 12-16 different golfers and run multiple lineups containing all of them.  Not this year.  Going to stick to 6-8 guys I really like and roll them in all my contests.  It may mean I crap out before the weekend some weeks, but if I can get the core guys I like through to the weekend on most weeks, it should be a profitable season.

THE STUDS
Adam Scott ($12,000) - The majority of DFS players are going to flock to two-time defending champion Jimmy Walker in this price range at only $200 more.  Not me.  I'm rolling with the big Australian as the core to my lineups.  Scott is in great form with five top-10s in his last six starts, including a T10 last week at the TOC.  He finished T8 in his last visit to Waialae in 2014.  I think Scott will be low owned this week as the second most expensive guy and he's a great pick as a cash game anchor and GPP play.

Matt Kucher ($11,500) - It's gonna be hard to fit both Scott and Kucher in the same lineup, so I'll probably have to split my exposure to both.  Kucher is a rock solid choice this week.  Whereas Scott may have some questions surrounding his putting stroke, Kucher is about as safe as they come.  His last four at Waialae have resulted in no worse than a T8.  If that doesn't entice you, then maybe the fact that he's the best in the field at Par 4 scoring average.  Wanna guess who is second?  Adam Scott.

THE COURSE HORSES
Charles Howell III ($9,700) - Howell has never missed the cut at the Sony, with a remarkable eight Top-10 finishes since 2002.  His last five here have included a T2, T3 and T8.  He's a guy who seems to always play well at the beginning of the season, which has been the case this year with three starts and a low finish of T17 at the OHL.

Chris Kirk ($9,400) - Kirk is another guy who has never missed the cut at the Sony.  As a matter of fact, this guy has only had one round over par in 20 rounds at Waialae, and that was last year when he fired a 74 on Saturday.  In 2014 he finished alone in second.  2013 he was T5.  His stats align at this course as well as he's good on short courses and Par-70 tracks, as well as SG:T2G.  As with the studs above, it's gonna be hard to pair both of these guys with one of the above, so I'll likely have to split my exposure.

Webb Simpson ($7,700) - Keeping with the theme this week, Simpson is another guy who has never failed to play the weekend at Waialae, going six-for-six with a pair of Top-20s.  Simpson was leading the tournament last year after two rounds, firing an opening round 62, but he faltered on the weekend and came home T13.  He historically plays well on shorter courses, so this week shapes up as a good one for the former U.S. Open champion.

Jerry Kelly ($7,400) - Unlike the golfers mentioned above, Kelly has in fact missed a cut at Waialae.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't like playing this course. As a matter of fact, this may be his best course historically, with 11 top-25 finishes in 18 starts, including eight top-10s and a win back in 2002.  His last two trips have resulted in a T8 last year and solo 3rd in 2014.  The old guy knows how to maneuver around this track.

David Hearn ($7,000) - Here's another guy who has never missed a cut at Waialae.  His last five here have not resulted in a low finish, with his best being a T10 in 2012, but the name of the game is making the weekend and this guy has a knack for that.  Hearn is four-of-five on the season, making his last four so his form seems solid heading into play here.  The only concern is he won't be able to use his anchored broomstick putter this week but I'm going to ignore that.  Hopefully he can figure out the short stick.

THE SPECIALIST
Pat Perez ($6,500) - Perez gets his own category this week, and for good reason.  When looking at the stats, and the one's we are zeroing in on for this course, Perez hits them all.  He's an excellent player on short courses and Par-70 courses.  He's good in strokes gained total.  And when it comes to putting, he's the best in the field on Bermuda greens.  Perez also has a nice history at Waialea, making the weekend in 12 of 14 tries.  His last three trips here have resulted in two Top-10s.  He's been working with his swing coach the past month with an eye toward this tournament, and he recently posted on Instagram that he's looking forward to a great week.  I love his price and he'll be in every lineup for me.


Those are my guys this week.  Here's how the lineups look:

As you can see, this is 30 hours before lineups lock so things are subject to change.  But I'm feeling good about these guys.  Will be entering more contests, probably steering the Kuchar/Howell III lineup towards the cash games.  I'm really liking the Scott/Kirk lineup though as a contrarian option.  I'm really thinking Scott's ownership will be extremely low and I think he has as good a shot as anyone in the field to take home the victory this week.