PGA Careerbuilder Challenge 2016 Picks and Strategy

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the Careerbuilder Challenge, which in recent years was played as the Humana Challenge.  It's an interesting format as the tournament is played as a Pro-Am over three courses, so all 158 golfers are guaranteed at least three rounds of play.  After Saturday's play, the field will be cut to the top-70 and ties per normal.

As for the courses, two of them are new to the tournament this year.  The most significant change will be to the home course, which will be used to determine the winner on Sunday.  It moves to the PGA West TPC Stadium Course, which hasn't been used for play on the tour in 29 years.  The reason - the PGA Tour pros back in the 80's complained that the track was too difficult.  Awesome.  It will most certainly be the most difficult for the pros to maneuver around this week.  The course was once rated the fourth hardest course in America by Golf Digest and it has the highest slope and stroke rating of any of the three.

The other new course this year will be the TPC Nicklaus Tournament course.  The one holdover from years past is the La Quinta course.  It should prove to be the easiest of the three, with a scoring index of 69.487 from last year.  All three courses are par-72, with four par-5's and four par-3's.

So here's my strategy this week, which is a little different than last week at the Sony.  I am going to roll with two cash lineups this week.  I've targeted three core guys I like and they will be in both.  Six other guys will fill in the remaining three spots in the two lineups.  This was a tough week to really zone in on just one lineup as I couldn't fit some of the higher priced guys in the same lineup together; hence, I'm rolling out the two lineups this week.  I am then carrying over one core guy, plus one of my other cash guys into a GPP lineup which features four other guys who I think are excellent tournament plays but who I wasn't confident enough to play in cash.  Here we go!

THE CORE
Francesco Molinari ($8,700) - This guy has the type of golf game that translates just about anywhere.  With this tournament being played over three tracks, I think it sets up nicely for him to play well and be in contention come Sunday.  He finished T33 at the Sony last week, and it could have been better if he hadn't struggled on Sunday with a 70.  He was 10th in this tournament last year over different courses.  He's one of the best putters on the planet, and if he can get from T2G better this week than last, look out!

Russell Henley ($8,300) - Henley disappointed many a DFS player last week by missing the cut at the Sony.  But I'm on board this week and I hope other aren't.  Guy checks off all the boxes as far as Accuracy, GIR and SG:Putting.  He was playing well before the December break with a T6 and 10th in his last two starts.

Pat Perez ($6,600) - I'm going back to the Pat Perez well once again after a less than stellar performance last week at the Sony.  Thing with Perez is he always plays well on the West Coast.  He's a former winner of this tournament.  His current form leaves a whole lot to be desired, but I'm thinking this tournament format is just the thing to get him going.

THE SPECIALISTS
Robert Streb ($9,400) - Streb is a cut maker who really fits this week with what we're looking for: SG:Total, Bermuda, Weak Fields, Par-72 Courses, Easy Courses.  He's better than average in all those categories.  I also like the fact he's the 12th most expensive golfer this week on DK, but is ranked 6th as far as odds go on the Vegas line.  Sign me up.

Charley Hoffman ($9,200) - This guy is a former winner of this event, back in 2007, and he's also go five top-10's in nine appearances, including a runner-up finish last year.  A California boy who loves playing on the Left Coast.  He's a guy who excels on the easier courses.  Let's hope the Stadium Course won't slow him down this week.

Jerry Kelly ($7,500) - Kelly is another guy who always seems to play well early in the season.  He's made four straight cuts to start the season and has shot par or better in 11 straight rounds.  Not the flashiest pick of the bunch, but a guy I'm counting on to make it to Sunday.

THE GUYS IN FORM
Webb Simpson ($9,600) - He's made five of his last six cuts here and finished in the top-13 three times, including a 7th here last year.  Of course, the change in courses makes this year a little bit hard to rely on past performance.  But Simpson has started off 2016 in good form, finishing T13 at the Sony with a high round of 69, and that came on Sunday.  He really does everything well that we're looking for this week.  If he can get his putter going, which is always a struggle, he can win this thing!

Charles Howell III ($9,100) - Charlie Three Sticks is yet another guy who excels early in the year.  He has rolled off six straight cuts made to open the season, and he has a good track record in this tournament with 8 of 10 cuts made and a pair of top-10's.  Wish he was better on Bermuda, but we can't have it all.

Daniel Summerhays ($7,900) - Summerhays is 5-for-5 to start the season with three top-20's.  He finished T13 last week at the Sony.  He's a guy who puts the ball in play and is a solid putter and has made three of four cuts here with a best of 11th.  He also cracked the top-100 in the world, starting the tournament this week as the 99th ranked golfer globally.

THE GPP FLIERS
Ryan Palmer ($11,000) - Hard to really categorize this guy as a flier as he's played superbly in this tournament in the past, firing a combined 68-under par the last three years.  Now that's some production.  He's made six of his last seven cuts at this event with four top-10's in his last five trips, including a 10th here last year.  Palmer is also noticeably better on Bermuda greens, which we have this week.  Since 2013, he's ranked 4th on Tour in SG:Total on these greens and is 11th in Bermuda Performance vs Expected Strokes Gained.  With Bill Haas slightly more expensive and Phil Mickelson slightly cheaper in his price range, I'm hoping Palmer will be lightly owned.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,500) - We're getting the 41st ranked golfer in the world here at a discounted price.  As far as world rank goes, he would be 7th in this tournament field and he comes in as the 32nd ranked in DK salary.  He could completely tank for all I know, but I'm thinking he shows his class and is around come Sunday.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,000) - Here's another guy I think we are getting at a discounted price.  He's made all three of his cuts this season, and he proved last year that he can play with the best, making the cut at both the US and British Opens.  He checks in as the 46th most expensive golfer this week.  I say he's far better than that.  We shall see.

Erik Compton ($6,200) - Lastly we have Erik Compton.  Although he missed the cut last week at the Sony, he played decent, firing 69-69 to miss the cut by a stroke.  He's three of four making the cut at this event with a T10 last year.  Compton is first relative to the field in Strokes Gained on Par 72 courses and seventh in the field in Strokes Gained on Bermuda Grass.  At only $6.2k he just needs to make it to Sunday to pay off his salary.

Here's hoping to a good journey towards all 13 guys making it to Sunday!