2016 Sony Open Strategy and Picks

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week for the annual Sony Hawaii Open at the beautiful Waialae Country Club.  And while 2016 officially kicked off last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, this week is the first full-field tournament of the new year.  The venue this week is one of the oldest tracks on the PGA Tour, and it is also one of the shortest.  Waialae plays as a Par-70, so par Par 4 scoring is going to be imperative.

The thing about PGA DFS is trying to figure out how much to weigh past success at a particular course compared to a players current form.  When these two align, it's a recipe for success.  My goal this year is to target these golfers and get guys through to the weekend.  Making cuts is imperative to making money in this sport.  Let's see if we can identify some guys who will me making us money this week!

I am going to try and limit my exposure to multiple golfers this year.  I stick to a strategy in other sports where I pick out an optimal lineup and run with it.  Last year during the PGA season, I would target 12-16 different golfers and run multiple lineups containing all of them.  Not this year.  Going to stick to 6-8 guys I really like and roll them in all my contests.  It may mean I crap out before the weekend some weeks, but if I can get the core guys I like through to the weekend on most weeks, it should be a profitable season.

THE STUDS
Adam Scott ($12,000) - The majority of DFS players are going to flock to two-time defending champion Jimmy Walker in this price range at only $200 more.  Not me.  I'm rolling with the big Australian as the core to my lineups.  Scott is in great form with five top-10s in his last six starts, including a T10 last week at the TOC.  He finished T8 in his last visit to Waialae in 2014.  I think Scott will be low owned this week as the second most expensive guy and he's a great pick as a cash game anchor and GPP play.

Matt Kucher ($11,500) - It's gonna be hard to fit both Scott and Kucher in the same lineup, so I'll probably have to split my exposure to both.  Kucher is a rock solid choice this week.  Whereas Scott may have some questions surrounding his putting stroke, Kucher is about as safe as they come.  His last four at Waialae have resulted in no worse than a T8.  If that doesn't entice you, then maybe the fact that he's the best in the field at Par 4 scoring average.  Wanna guess who is second?  Adam Scott.

THE COURSE HORSES
Charles Howell III ($9,700) - Howell has never missed the cut at the Sony, with a remarkable eight Top-10 finishes since 2002.  His last five here have included a T2, T3 and T8.  He's a guy who seems to always play well at the beginning of the season, which has been the case this year with three starts and a low finish of T17 at the OHL.

Chris Kirk ($9,400) - Kirk is another guy who has never missed the cut at the Sony.  As a matter of fact, this guy has only had one round over par in 20 rounds at Waialae, and that was last year when he fired a 74 on Saturday.  In 2014 he finished alone in second.  2013 he was T5.  His stats align at this course as well as he's good on short courses and Par-70 tracks, as well as SG:T2G.  As with the studs above, it's gonna be hard to pair both of these guys with one of the above, so I'll likely have to split my exposure.

Webb Simpson ($7,700) - Keeping with the theme this week, Simpson is another guy who has never failed to play the weekend at Waialae, going six-for-six with a pair of Top-20s.  Simpson was leading the tournament last year after two rounds, firing an opening round 62, but he faltered on the weekend and came home T13.  He historically plays well on shorter courses, so this week shapes up as a good one for the former U.S. Open champion.

Jerry Kelly ($7,400) - Unlike the golfers mentioned above, Kelly has in fact missed a cut at Waialae.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't like playing this course. As a matter of fact, this may be his best course historically, with 11 top-25 finishes in 18 starts, including eight top-10s and a win back in 2002.  His last two trips have resulted in a T8 last year and solo 3rd in 2014.  The old guy knows how to maneuver around this track.

David Hearn ($7,000) - Here's another guy who has never missed a cut at Waialae.  His last five here have not resulted in a low finish, with his best being a T10 in 2012, but the name of the game is making the weekend and this guy has a knack for that.  Hearn is four-of-five on the season, making his last four so his form seems solid heading into play here.  The only concern is he won't be able to use his anchored broomstick putter this week but I'm going to ignore that.  Hopefully he can figure out the short stick.

THE SPECIALIST
Pat Perez ($6,500) - Perez gets his own category this week, and for good reason.  When looking at the stats, and the one's we are zeroing in on for this course, Perez hits them all.  He's an excellent player on short courses and Par-70 courses.  He's good in strokes gained total.  And when it comes to putting, he's the best in the field on Bermuda greens.  Perez also has a nice history at Waialea, making the weekend in 12 of 14 tries.  His last three trips here have resulted in two Top-10s.  He's been working with his swing coach the past month with an eye toward this tournament, and he recently posted on Instagram that he's looking forward to a great week.  I love his price and he'll be in every lineup for me.


Those are my guys this week.  Here's how the lineups look:

As you can see, this is 30 hours before lineups lock so things are subject to change.  But I'm feeling good about these guys.  Will be entering more contests, probably steering the Kuchar/Howell III lineup towards the cash games.  I'm really liking the Scott/Kirk lineup though as a contrarian option.  I'm really thinking Scott's ownership will be extremely low and I think he has as good a shot as anyone in the field to take home the victory this week.