Tuesday, July 28, 2015

MLB First Thoughts - TUE 7/28/15

DraftKings is offering a 15 games slate tonight, and an intriguing on in that with several good matchups to exploit.  Let's take a look at how I plan to attack the games.

STARTING PITCHER
As I look at the starting pitching today, several names peak my interest.  First and foremost is Jose Fernandez, who has picked up right where he left off following his Tommy John surgery.  The big right-hander has an insane 33.2K% and holds a 2.16 SIERA.  He gets a home starts against a Nationals team who is middle of the pack in wOBA against RHP, but the rank 24th in K%.  Anthony Rendon obviously helps the Nats with his return to the lineup, but I still love Fernandez in this spot tonight, even at his elevated salary of $12,700.

The other pitcher I plan on rostering is Noah Syndegard at home against the Padres.  Syndergaard, at $10,700, has been very good in his last seven starts sporting a 2.05 earned run average with a 0.98 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched.   He's facing a San Diego club that strikes out 22.6-percent of the time, ranking 27th in the league. And despite an off-season of adding bats to the roster the Padres offense has been one of the worst of 2015, with a 663 OPS and .291 wOBA, also ranking 27th in the league.

I'm going to try and lock those two arms into my cash lineup tonight.  I really like David Price ($12,800) as well, but he's more expensive than Fernandez and Syndegard, and I like them both a little better.  A couple of intriguing guys who are less expensive are Hisashi Iwakuma ($8,300) at home against the D-Backs, and Jordan Zimmerman (7,700) on the road in Miami.  Iwakuma has been looking more like the Iwakuma of the past couple years in his last three starts, with a 1.74 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 20.2 innings.  Those three starts were against a surging Angels team at home, and the Tigers and Yankess on the road.  Now is the time to hop on the Iwakuma train before his price takes a big jump (it actually did take a large jump tonight, but I'm talking into the $10k+ range).

The Nationals have won the last six of Zimmerman starts.  While that streak my be hard to continue tonight against Fernandez and the Marlins, he gets to faces a Stanton-less squad who are ranked 27th in wOBA and 18th in K% on the year.  While Zim's upside is normally limited by his low K rate, he has actually improved to a 22.0K% over the last month of play, striking out 30 while only walking two.

CATCHER
I've been burned by this guy a couple time in the past week, but I'm going back to the well once again with Matt Wieters at only $2,600.  His opponent, Julio Tehran, has struggled on the road in his career (6.95 ERA this year) and owns a .328 wOBA against left-handed hitters.  Wieters had three hits last night including a walk-off HR.  (NOTE: Wieters is not in the lineup today)

Other guys I like are Russell Martin ($4,200) and Josh Phegley ($3,100)

FIRST BASE
If I'm gonna roster both Fernandez and Syndegard tonight, I'm going to have to find value at every turn.  One guy that stands out at 1B is Jose Abreu at only $4,200.  The White Sox are in Boston to face left-hander Wade Miley tonight, and he's shown an inability to get right-handed batters out, compiling a .388 wOBA against them since the start of 2014.  Abreu, for his part, has a .412 wOBA against LHP since the start of 2014.

Other guys I like include Prince Fielder ($4,900), Todd Frazier ($4,900), David Ortiz ($4,100), Brandon Belt ($3,900) and Lucas Duda ($3,600).  Fielder and Frazier are gonna be too expensive to fit into the lineup tonight.  I do really like Big Papi, who has been on fire.  I just like Abreu a little more.  Belt has a great matchup against Wily Peralta.  Duda is a cheap option who could go deep tonight.

SECOND BASE
Middle infield is where I'm gonna find good value tonight, and most nights for that matter.  Tonight I really like Cesar Hernandez hitting at the top of the Phillies order against lefty Felix Doubront in Toronto.  He's only $3,200 and has hit well against LHP.  He's also been hitting well of late with four multi-hit games in the last week.

Other guys I'm looking at are Jose Altuve ($4,700), Devon Travis ($4,200) and DJ LeMahieu ($4,000).  Altuve is another guy too expensive to fit into the lineup if I want to roster the two expensive pitchers.  BUt he faces a LHP is normally just plug-and-play time with him.  Travis is not a guy I usually roster, especially over 4k, but with Reyes moving onto Colorado in the Tulo trade, he may hit leadoff, and if so is on my radar.  Travis has been hot lately (.364 BA in July) and he crushes LHP (.397 wOBA).  LeMahieu is rolling right now with a 17 game hit streak.  Not overly impressed with Dallas Beeler, who the Cubs throw against him tonight.

THIRD BASE
There are several intriguing options at 3B tonight, but most are priced to the point they will be hard for me to roster.  The guy I'm settling on is Tyler Saladino at only $2,400.  He's hitting 2nd in the ChiSox lineup, right ahead of Abreu.  I love employing these little mini-stacks in cash games with guys at the top of a lineup.  Saladino has been playing quite well recently with a .355 wOBA and a pair of homers in his last ten games.  He also gets to face Wade Miley which is also a factor.

Othey guys I like at 3B include Josh Donaldson ($5,800), A-Rod ($5,200), Mikael Franco ($4,300) and Matt Carpenter ($3,800)

SHORTSTOP
I would really love to roster Carlos Correa tonght, but again, his price is just too high.  My second option is Brandon Crawford at $3,800 against the Brewers at home.  He's been on fire lately with hits in each of his past seven games, including three homers.  He's going against Wily Peralta, who hasn't started a game since May and has had a history of problems retiring left-handed batters.  My only concern with Crawford is his spot in the lineup, which is usually in the bottom half (tonight he bats 7th).

Other SS I considered were Correa ($4,700) and Jung Ho Kang ($3,700).

OUTFIELD
When glancing at the salaires, I realized almost immediately that I wanted to stack a couple of Colorado bats in Carlos Gonzalez ($4,400)and Corey Dickerson ($3,400).  CarGo is the hottest hitter in baseball right now with three two HR games in his last four.  Dickerson is woefully under-priced at only 3.4k.  Both get to face Dallas Beeler, who has allowed a .444 wOBA to left-handed batters in his two starts this season.  My other OF spot is going to Darrin Ruf, who has a .417 wOBA against LHP since the beginning of 2014. He also gives me a couple of Phils in the lineup in a plus matchup at Rogers Centre in Toronto.


As you can see, this lineup rocked, even with Cesar Hernandez throwing up an egg.  It obviously cashed in all the the H2H and 50/50 contests I entered.  I threw it into the $3 Moonshot, and it cashed there as well.  The Yankess went apeshit and scored 21 runs on the night so no chance of a big score, but made money nonetheless.  The best play of the night was the pivot/punt play of Geovany Soto, who I was forced to switch in when Wieters wasn't in the lineup.  Him and teammate Abreu combined for a healthy 59 points.

And although I didn't roster him anywhere, I did call Lucas Duda going deep.  Just saying.


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