Saturday, July 25, 2015

MLB Lineup Deconstruction - SAT 7/25/15

Ten game slate tonight on Draftkings.  With Chris Sale pitching, he's a lock for the lineup, even at his $13,400 price.  He has an insane 31.4K% over the past two years and he's topped 30 DK points in eight of his last ten games.  Carlos Martinez is the preferred option as my SP2, but his $9,300 pricetag may be a little to high to pair with Sale.  Most likely I'll go down to one of two value plays, either AJ Burnett at home against the Nationals at $8,800 or Ian Kennedy in Petco against the Marlins at $7,300.  Kennedy is the more likely of two as he's #1, less expensive, and #2 in a better park, and #3 in a better matchup.

When targeting hitters, my first choice is to plug and play Jose Altuve against a LHP.  He's pretty much an automatic selection for me when going against a lefty depending on his price.  And at $4,600 he's affordable.   The other player I would love to roster tonight is Todd Frazier facing a lefty in Coors Field, but at $5,900 he's gonna be hard to afford.

One guy that stands out because of his price is Corey Dickerson.  At only $3,300, he seems like a steal to me playing in Coors.  I know he's facing a tough pitcher in Johnny Cueto, and I normally wouldn't target anyone against the Cincy right-hander, but Dickerson owns a .408 wOBA against RHP since the beginning of 2014.  He came back from injury last night and had two hits and a walk.  He's routinely priced in the mid $4000 range, so it's hard to pass him up so cheap.

I also like Adrian Beltre at his $3,500 pricetag.  He's obviously not having a typical Beltre type of year,.but he's been hitting better of late with a .400 wOBA over the past two weeks.  He also has good success against Hector Santiago, going 7-for-22 with two doubles and three HRs.  Santiago is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher so I like Beltre's chances to go deep tonight.

One pitcher I'd like to target is Rubby DeLaRosa, who has been getting murdered by left-handed bat this year to the tune of a .389 wOBA and .902 OPS.  I initially think of Adam Lind, but I don't like his $4,500 price, especially with some of the names that are cheaper than him at 1B.  The other guy I like is Gerardo Parra.  He's been really playing well this year and owns a .497 wOBA over the past two weeks.  His price is only $4,100 so he makes the lineup for sure.

So with four guys locked into the lineup, it's time to fill in around them.  I'm thinking I want to get Mike Trout back in the lineup tonight as he did well for me last night.  His price is high at $5,000, but for him that price is actually a bargain.  He routinely is priced in the mid $5000s.  Gonna try to pair him with Albert Pujols, who is also under-priced in my estimation at only $4,100.  I also like Kole Calhoun at only $3,700.  I like their matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who has been getting lucky lately with a SIERA a full three runs higher than his ERA over the last month.

The final two positions I'm gonna have to hunt for value.  At catcher, the guy that stands out is Kurt Suzuki.  I don't roster him often, but at only $2,600 facing a lefty in CC Sabathia, he seems like the best option.  Plus he's had some success against Sabathia in the past, launching four homers against him in his career.  That leaves only $2,100 left for a SS.  Fortunately, Tyler Saladino is that price and hitting 2nd in the White Sox lineup tonight against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians.  Don't love the matchup, but at that price and hitting that high in the lineup, he's an obvious fit.  That leaves me just enough to roster Kennedy as my 2nd SP and the lineup is locked and loaded.


Another solid effort as the lineup cashed in all of it's entries.  Both Sale and Kennedy had solid performances and both picked up wins.  The offense was led by none other than Tyler Saladino with 15 points.  Gotta love it when your punt play is your leading scorer.  Trout and Pujols both had nice games as well.  Dickerson, Parra and Beltre all dissappointed.  So that's a three day cash streak.  Looking to keep the streak alive tomorrow!!

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